From theThe World Bank Group
Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries (GEPDC):
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Volume 6 - January 2013
Four years after the onset of the global financial crisis, the world economy
remains fragile and growth in high-income countries is weak. Developing
countries need to focus on raising the growth potential of their economies,
while strengthening buffers to deal with risks from the Euro Area and fiscal
policy in the United States, says the World Bank in the newly-released
Global Economic Prospects (GEP) report.
2012
Volume 5 - June 2012
Developing countries should prepare for a long period of volatility in the
global economy by re-emphasizing medium-term development strategies, while
preparing for tougher times, says the World Bank in the newly-released
Global Economic Prospects (GEP), June
2012.
A resurgence of
tensions in high-income Europe has eroded the gains made during the first four
months of this year, which saw a rebound in economic activity in both developing
and advanced countries and an easing of risk aversion among investors. Since May
1st, increased market jitters have spread. Developing and high-income
country stock markets have lost some 7 percent, giving up two-thirds of the
gains generated over the preceding four months. Most industrial commodity prices
are down, with crude and copper prices down by 19 and 14 percent, respectively,
while developing country currencies have lost value against the US dollar, as
international capital fled to safe-haven assets, such as German and U.S.
government bonds.
2012
Volume 4 - January 2012
Uncertainties
and Vulnerabilities
Developing countries should prepare for further downside risks, as Euro Area
debt problems and weakening growth in several big emerging economies are dimming
global growth prospects, says the World Bank in the newly-released Global
Economic Prospects (GEP) 2012.
The Bank has lowered its growth forecast for 2012 to 5.4 percent for
developing countries and 1.4 percent for high-income countries (-0.3 percent for
the Euro Area), down from its June estimates of 6.2 and 2.7 percent (1.9 percent
for the Euro Area), respectively. Global growth is now projected at 2.5 and 3.1
[1] percent for 2012 and 2013, respectively.
2011
Volume 3 - June 2011
Maintening growth amid turmoil
The financial crisis for most developing countries is over. Efforts must now
focus on tackling country-specific challenges such as achieving balanced growth
through structural reforms, coping with inflationary pressures, and dealing with
high commodity prices.
2011
Volume 2 - January 2011
Navigating
Strong Currents
This report projects slower but still solid growth in 2011 and 2012, with
developing countries contributing almost half of global growth. But the
recovery in some high-income and emerging Europe and Central Asian economies
is tentative.
2010
Volume
1 - June 2010
Fiscal
Headwinds and Recovery
Even as the world economic recovery continues to advance, it faces fresh
headwinds on the road to sustainable medium term growth. The report warns
that while the impact of the European debt crisis has so far been contained,
it has the real potential to derail global growth.
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2010
January 2010
Crisis,
Finance, and Growth
The acute phase of the financial crisis has
passed and a global economic recovery is under way.
Moreover, the recovery is fragile and expected to
slow in the second half of 2010 as the growth impact of fiscal and
monetary measures wane and the current inventory cycle runs its
course. Indeed, industrial production growth is already slowing
(albeit from very high rates). As a result, employment growth will remain
weak and unemployment is expected to remain high for many years. The
overall strength of the recovery and its durability will depend on
the extent to which household- and business-sector demand strengthens
over the next few quarters. While the baseline scenario projects that
global growth will firm to 2.7 percent in 2010 and 3.2 percent in
2011 after a 2.2 percent decline in 2009, neither a double-dip scenario,
where growth slows appreciably in 2011, or a strengthening recovery can
be ruled out.
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2009
Commodity markets at the crossroads
The stresses in U.S. financial markets that first emerged in the summer of 2007
transformed themselves into a full-blown global financial crisis in the fall of
2008. As the crisis intensified, the effects of financial turmoil on developing
countries increased in step, as risk aversion sent spreads soaring, equity
markets tumbling, exchange rates falling and capital flows into decline. In this
climate, growth prospects for both high-income and developing countries have
deteriorated substantially, and a movement of global growth from 2.5 percent in
2008 to 0.9 percent in 2009 appears to be in the cards.
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2008
Technology Diffusion in the Developing World
This edition of Global Economic Prospects is being released during a period of
increased uncertainty following four years of record growth in developing
countries. In addition to examining economic prospects over the near and longer
term, it takes an in-depth look at the current level of and recent trends in
technological achievement and the main factors that determine the extent to
which developing countries succeed in implementing foreign
technologies.
Notwithstanding the financial turmoil provoked by a
reassessment of risks in the U.S. mortgage market, and despite large losses in
some financial markets, exposure to asset backed securities appears to be
broadly based. Losses so far have been manageable, although credit conditions
have tightened. For developing economies, sovereign risk premiums have increased
but remain low by historical standards. Equity values, exchange rates, and
commodity prices have become more volatile, and the vulnerability of countries
with large current account deficits or pegged exchange rates has become more
visible.
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2007
Managing the Next Wave of Globalization
Globalization has been present since the
dawn of modern humans nearly 50,000
years ago in Africa (see Wade 2006). The
Roman Empire stretched from Great Britain
to the Middle East nearly 2,000 years ago and
500 years ago the age of discoveries led to the
expansion of European outreach to the western
hemisphere and East Asia. Two distinct
periods in more modern times are often cited
as intensified phases of globalization—the
20–30 years before World War I and the years
since World War II. Both witnessed sharp increases
in trade, international migration, and
flows of finance, accompanied by rapid
changes in technology—electricity, trains, and
steamships in the first period, and planes,
containers, and telecommunications in the
second. While technology was a key factor,
policies were also important—such as the reductions
in trade and financial barriers. This
report reviews some of the key evidence of
the most recent period of globalization hinting
at what trends can be anticipated over the
next 25 years. The report will highlight
trends in four broad categories that define
globalization—trade in goods and services,
international migration, capital flows, and
technology and information.
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2006
Economic Implications of Remittances and
Migration
Migration Can Deliver
Welfare Gains, Reduce Poverty, Says Global Economic Prospects 2006
WASHINGTON, November 16, 2005 — International migration can
generate substantial welfare gains for migrants and their families, as well as
their origin and destination countries, if policies to better manage the flow of
migrants and facilitate the transfer of remittances are pursued, says the World
Bank's annual Global Economic Prospects (GEP) report for 2006.
“With the number of migrants worldwide now reaching almost 200 million,
their productivity and earnings are a powerful force for poverty
reduction,” said François Bourguignon, World Bank Chief Economist
and Senior Vice President for Development Economics.
“Remittances,
in particular, are an important way out of extreme poverty for a large number of
people. The challenge facing policymakers is to fully achieve the potential
economic benefits of migration, while managing the associated social and
political implications.”
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2005
Trade, Regionalism, and
Development
Regional
Trade Pacts Must Create – Not Divert – Trade to Reduce Poverty: World
Bank Report Global Economic Prospects 2005 predicts highest growth in
30 years for developing countries
WASHINGTON, November 16,
2004 — With regional trade agreements (RTAs) having increased sixfold since
the 1980s and now covering more than one-third of global trade, the World Bank's
Global Economic Prospects 2005 advises countries concluding bilateral and
regional trade pacts to keep them “open”, so as not to divert trade or cause
market distortions that penalize other developing countries.
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2004
Realizing
the Development Promise of the Doha Agenda
The Doha
Development Agenda of the Fourth Ministerial Conference of the WTO
opened many contentious and important questions. Global Economic
Prospects 2004: Realizing the Development Promise of the Doha
Agenda analyzes the most critical multilateral trade issues and
suggests policy options that would raise living standards in
developing countries and reduce global poverty.
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2003
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Investing to
Unlock Global Opportunities
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In
the face of uncertainties in the global environment, Global
Economic Prospects 2003 outlines steps that can be adopted by rich
and poor countries to increase growth rates and accelerate poverty
reduction. Though global GDP is expected to rise by 2.5 percent in
2003 as a result of improved business health and policy stimulus
in the U.S. and Europe, the chances of the world economy sliding
toward recession are real. Regional variations in growth in
developing countries are striking: 6.1 percent in East Asia
compared to 1.8 percent in Latin America. The poverty targets are
likely to be achieved by most regions, except for Africa which
lags behind.
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2002
| Making Trade Work for
the World's Poor |
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Global Economic
Prospects and the Developing Countries 2002 reviews
the global economic environment and its implications for the
developing countries over the next decade. Realizing the promise
of the new global initiatives to expand trade requires concerted
effort to move development to center stage in trade policy
formulation. This report is dedicated to that agenda. It begins
with a review of global prospects and ways globalization links the
fates of industrial and developing countries. The report then
considers issues in four broad areas that are particularly
important to developing countries: merchandise trade, services,
transport, and intellectual property rights. A final chapter
summarizes the forward-looking policy agenda, and assesses the
potential impact of further global integration and more rapid
growth for the standards of living in poor countries everywhere.
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2001
The global economy is
likely approaching a cyclical high in 2000, while policy reforms and improvements
in health and education in developing countries over the past decade
have substantially increased their potential for long-term growth.
However, volatility in the global economic environment presents major
risks for developing countries that could depress prospects.
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| 2000
Recovery from the
global financial crisis has been more rapid than once forecast.
Nevertheless, the aftershocks of the crisis continue to depress growth
prospects for developing countries and hamper efforts to reduce poverty
worldwide. This tenth annual edition of Global Economic
Prospects 2000
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analyzes the
prospects for the global economy and the implications for poverty
reduction
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reports on the
enormous social impact of the crisis inthe most affected countries
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reviews progress in
corporate and bank restructuring in the East Asian crisis
countries
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traces the impact
of volatile commodity prices on exporters of primary commodities
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1998/99
Beyond
Financial Crises
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With
surprising speed over the past 12 months, various crises have
buffeted the global economy. Japan lapsed into recession. Russia
ran into severe financial difficulties. Capital flows to emerging
markets fell abruptly. Credit for development is shrinking amidst
heightened risk aversion in global financial markets.
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