UNCTAD - Trade and Development Reports (TADR)
Trade and Development Report
2009
A
gloomy global outlook
Even before the financial turmoil turned into a full-blown crisis in September 2008, growth of gross
domestic product (GDP) had ground to a halt in most developed countries. Subsequently the slowdown turned
into a fully-fledged recession, and in 2009 global GDP is expected to fall by more than 2.5 per cent. The
crisis is unprecedented in depth and breadth, with virtually no economy left unscathed. Even economies that
are expected to grow this year, such as those of China and India, are slowing down significantly compared
to previous years.
Starting in the United States subprime mortgage market, the financial crisis spread quickly, infecting the
entire United States financial system and, almost simultaneously, the financial markets of other developed
countries. No market was spared, from the stock markets and real estate markets of a large number of developed
and emerging-market economies, to currency markets and primary commodity markets. The credit crunch
following the collapse or near collapse of major financial institutions affected activity in the real economy,
which accelerated the fall in private demand, causing the greatest recession since the Great Depression. The
crisis has affected most strongly companies, incomes and employment in the financial sector itself, but also
in the construction, capital goods and durable consumer goods industries where demand depends largely
on credit. In the first quarter of 2009 gross fixed capital formation and manufacturing output in most of the
world’s major economies fell at double digit rates. Meanwhile problems with solvency in the non-financial
sector in many countries fed back into the financial system.
|
Contents:
Chapter
I [PDF, 54pp., 855KB]
The impact of the global crisis and the short-term policy
response |
| A. |
Recent trends in the world economy
|
| B. |
The unfolding of the
current global crisis |
| C. |
The ramifications of
the spreading crisis |
| Notes |
| References |
|
Annex to chapter I
|
|
 |
Chapter
II [PDF, 34pp., 645KB]
The Financialization of commodity markets |
| A. |
Introduction |
| B. |
The growing
interdependence of financial and commodity markets |
| C. |
Problems with the
financialization of commodity futures trading |
| D. |
The impact of
financialization on commodity price developments |
| |
1. Commodity prices,
equity indexes and exchange rates |
| |
2. Position taking
and price developments |
| |
3. Statistical
properties of price developments |
| |
4. Conclusions |
| E. |
The implications of
increased financial investor activities for commercial
users of commodity futures exchanges |
| F. |
Policy implications |
| |
1. Regulation of
commodity futures exchanges |
| |
2. International
policy measures |
| G. |
Conclusions and
outlook |
| Notes |
| References |
|
|
Chapter
III [PDF, 30pp., 470KB]
Learning from the crisis: Policies for safer and sounder
financiaL systems |
| A. |
Introduction |
| B. |
The current crisis:
some new facets, but mostly the same old story |
| C. |
How to deal with the
fragility of the modern financial system |
| |
1. Defining and
measuring efficiency |
| |
2. Avoiding gambling |
| |
3. Avoiding regulatory arbitrage
|
| |
4. Can securitization
reduce risk? |
| |
5. Strengthening
regulation |
| |
6. Implementing
macro-prudential regulation |
| |
7. Enhancing
international coordination |
| |
8. Financial
regulation and incentives |
| D. |
Lessons for
developing countries |
| |
1. Increasing
resilience to external shocks |
| |
2. More financial
development requires more and better regulation |
| |
3. There is no
one-size-fits-all financial system |
| E. |
Conclusions |
| Notes |
| References |
|
Annex to chapter III
|
|
|
Chapter
IV [PDF, 22pp., 295KB]
Reform of the international monetary and financial system |
| A. |
Introduction |
| B. |
The problem of the
predominance of financial markets over fundamentals |
| C. |
Stemming
destabilizing capital flows |
| |
1. Taxing
international financial transactions |
| |
2. Capital-account
management |
| |
3. Dealing with debt
and payments crises |
| D. |
International
reserves and the role of SdRs |
| |
1. Disadvantages of
the current system |
| |
2. The cost of
holding foreign exchange reserves |
| |
3. Reform of the
reserve system and the role of SDRs |
| E. |
A global monetary
system with stable real exchange rates and symmetric
intervention obligations |
| F. |
The role of regional
cooperation and international policy coordination |
| Notes |
| References |
|
|
Chapter
V [PDF, 44pp., 415KB]
Climate Change mitigation and development |
| A. |
Introduction |
| B. |
Greenhouse gas
emissions and the global impact of climate change |
| C. |
Policies for climate
change mitigation: some general considerations |
| |
1. Correcting market
failure |
| |
2. Carbon taxes,
emissions trading and regulation |
| |
3. Technology and
innovation policies |
| D. |
structural change for
curbing global warming |
| E. |
Climate change
mitigation and the development imperative |
| |
1. Emissions
reduction, growth and development |
| |
2. Options for
climate change mitigation in developing countries |
| |
3. Development
opportunities arising from climate change mitigation |
| |
4. Integrating
climate change mitigation policies with development
strategies |
| F. |
Towards an effective
international climate policy framework |
| |
1. The broad agenda |
| |
2. Involvement of
developing countries |
| |
3. External
financing, trade and technology transfer |
| G. |
Conclusions and
policy recommendations |
| Notes |
| References |
|
|
|
|
| ....
|
|
Back to Trade and Development Reports (various years)
UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics:
2002 -
2003
-
2004 -
2005 -
2006/07
|
World Investment Reports (WIR)
World Investment Reports (selected
statistics)
Digital
library of UNCTAD, CD-Roms and on-line data sources
UNCTAD X: documents and papers
|
UNCTAD investment brief, No. 1, 2007, Foreign
direct investment surged again in 2006 (UNCTAD/ITE/IIA/MISC/2007/2)
01/02/07, 2 Pages, 58 Kb
Transport Newsletter, No. 34, Fourth Quarter
2006 (UNCTAD/SDTE/TLB/2006/5)
31/01/07, 21 Pages, 466 Kb
World economic situation and prospects 2007 (WESP/2007)
Sales no.: E.07.II.C.2
01/01/07, 177 Pages, 1913 Kb
UNCTAD investment brief BRIEF, No. 5, 2006, Top TNCs
present in 40 host countries on average (UNCTAD/WEB/ITE/IIA/2006/10)
01/12/06, 2 Pages, 55 Kb
|
|
|
|
