The report presents the latest global and regional labour market trends for youth and specifically explores how the global economic crisis has exposed the vulnerabilities of young people around the world. In developed economies, the crisis has led to the highest youth unemployment rates on record, while in developing economies – where 90 per cent of the world’s youth live – the crisis threatens to exacerbates the challenges of rampant decent work deficits, adding to the number of young people who find themselves stuck in working poverty and thus prolonging the cycle of working poverty through at least another generation.

Contents

Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................... vi

1 Overview ......................................................................................................................................... 1

1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 1

1.2 Organization of the report ...................................................................................................... 2

1.3 Key findings in youth labour market trends .......................................................................... 2

2 Labour market trends for youth ................................................................................................ 7

2.1 Demographic and youth labour force trends .......................................................................... 7

2.2 Trends in youth employment ............................................................................................... 12

2.3 Trends in youth unemployment ........................................................................................... 16

2.4 Other labour market indicators for youth............................................................................. 21

2.5 Measuring working poverty among youth ........................................................................... 23

3 The impact of the global economic crisis ................................................................................ 28

3.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 28

3.2 Using labour market information to define the who, what, where and why of the crisis impact on youth ................................................................................................................... 28

3.2.1 Global and regional estimates .................................................................................... 28

3.2.2 Country-level evidence: The crisis impact on youth in the European Union ............ 32

3.3 Are there longer-term consequences for youth? .............................................................. 41

3.4 Recovery prospects for youth in labour markets ........................................................ 44

4 An evaluation of lessons learned in youth employment programmes ............................ 50

4.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 50

4.2 How to invest in youth employment .................................................................................... 51

4.2.1 The strategy ............................................................................................................... 52

4.2.2 Identifying the barriers youth face in the labour market ........................................... 52

4.3 Interventions to address youth employment barriers ........................................................... 54

4.3.1 Addressing technical skills mismatches .................................................................... 54

4.3.2 Addressing non-technical skills mismatches ............................................................. 55

4.3.3 Addressing slow job growth barriers ......................................................................... 56

4.3.4 Addressing discrimination in the labour market ........................................................ 58

4.3.5 Addressing inadequate job matching ......................................................................... 58

4.3.6 Addressing poor signalling ........................................................................................ 59

4.3.7 Addressing lack of access to start-up capital ............................................................. 59

Annex 1 World and regional tables............................................................................................. 61

Annex 2 Country inventory of crisis response interventions directly affecting youth employment ... 67

Boxes

1 Defining youth ............................................................................................................................... 1

2 Why focus on youth? ................................................................................................................... 6

3 A double burden: Being female and young in the Middle East and North Africa .............. 10

4 A note on data sources: ILO Trends Econometric Models .................................................. 16

5 Inequalities in youth labour markets ........................................................................................ 21

6 How many young working poor are there in the world? ..................................................... 26

7 Some voices of youth in crisis .................................................................................................. 39

8 A note about data estimates and projections, 2010-11 ......................................................... 45

9 Youth and choices: Advocating hope and empowerment ................................................... 48

10 Youth employment measures adopted during the recent crisis ..................................... 49

11 The Youth Employment Network (YEN) ................................................................................... 51

Tables

1 Youth labour force participation rate, by region and sex, 2000, 2010 and 2015 .................. 9

2 Five-year average of youth labour force growth, thousands .............................................. 11

3 Change in youth unemployment and unemployment rates between 1998 and 2008, by region ...................................................................................................................................... 17

4 Gross enrolment rates in post-primary education, five low-income countries, 2004 to 2009 .................................................................................................................................. 40

5 Global GDP growth, unemployment and unemployment rates, youth (15-24) and total (15+), 2007 to 2011 ......................................................................................................... 44

6 Projections of GDP growth rate, youth and adult unemployment rates, by region, 2010-11 ......................................................................................................................................... 47

Annex tables

A1 Global labour market indicators for youth (15-24) and total (15+), 1998, 2008 and 2009 ............ 61

A2 Youth labour force participation rate, by sex and region, 1998, 2008 and 2009 ............... 61

A3 Youth population, employment and unemployment, by sex and region, 1998, 2008 and 2009 ...................................................................................................................... 62

A4 Youth employment-to-population ratio, by sex and region, 1998, 2008 and 2009 ........... 63

A5 Youth unemployment rate, by sex and region, 1998, 2008 and 2009 ................................. 63

A6 Ratio of youth-to-adult unemployment rate, by sex and region, 1998, 2008 and 2009 ................. 63

A7 Youth inactivity, by region, 1998, 2008 and 2009 ................................................................... 64

A8 Youth share of working-age population, youth share of total unemployment and youth unemployed as percentage of the youth population, by region, 1998, 2008 and 2009 .................. 64

A9 Global labour market indicators for youth (15-24) and total (15+), projections 2010-11 ............. 65

A10 Labour market indicators for youth, by region, 2009 and projections 2010-11 ............ 66

Figures

1 Share of youth in the total population, by region, 1991 to 2015 ........................................... 8

2 Regional distribution of the youth population, 2010 and 2015 ............................................... 8

3 Global youth employment and employment-to-population ratio, 1991 to 2011 ................. 13

4 Youth employment-to-population ratio, by region, 1991 to 2011 ......................................... 13

5 Global youth unemployment and unemployment rate, 1991 to 2011 .................................. 18

6 Youth unemployment rate, by region, 1991 to 2011 ............................................................... 18

7 Youth and adult unemployment rates, country data, latest years (≥ 2004) ........................ 20

8 Share of contributing family workers in total employment, youth and adult cohorts, country data .................................................................................................................................. 23

9 Working poverty estimates, youth and adult cohorts, country data .................................. 25

10 Gap in labour force participation rates between working poor youth (below US$1.25 a day) and working youth above US$2 a day, country data ...................................................................... 25

11 Sectoral shares in employment, working poor youth (below US$1.25 a day) and working youth above US$2 a day, country data ....................................................................... 27

12 Gap in youth unemployment rate by sex (female-male), by region, 2007 to 2009 .......... 30

13 Comparing youth and adult impacts of the economic crisis at the global level, 2007 to 2009 .................................................................................................................................. 30

14 A selection of quarterly labour market indicators for youth in Estonia, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom, 2007Q1 to 2009Q4 ..................................................................... 34

15 Key labour market barriers for youth ................................................................................. 53

This report is the fourth in the series, with previous editions produced in 2004, 2006 and 2008. As in the previous reports, it incorporates the most recent labour market information available to explore the theme of the vulnerabilities of youth to unemployment and decent work deficits, showing where progress has or has not been made in absorbing the energy, talent and creativity of young people into the productive potential of the economy. Chapter 2 updates the world and regional youth labour market indicators and provides detailed analyses of the longer-term trends in youth population, labour force, employment and unemployment, and provides a first glimpse at new estimates of working poverty among youth.

The Global Employment Trends for Youth, August 2010 remains unique, however, as the only report in the series to be written in the midst of a global economic crisis. As such, it inevitably addresses the impact of the crisis on young men and women around the world. The impact on young people is defined and placed in a broader context in terms of comparisons among regions, between sexes and among other age cohorts (namely, that of adults). Chapter 3 explores the question of whether young men and women, already defined as a group with serious vulnerabilities even at the best of times, can become even more vulnerable during times of economic shocks. It looks at where the crisis impact is being felt the hardest in terms of youth employment and unemployment and where the impact is showing up more indirectly in view of longer-term development prospects. Finally, Chapter 4 looks at some lessons learned from evaluated youth employment programmes. Ideally, such lessons can help to shape future developments as countries continue to prioritize youth in their national recovery policy agendas.