Cover - Contents - Foreword
Chapter I
Structural change for development
A. Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean
B. Structuralism: Macroeconomics and development
C. Characteristics of structural change
D. Technology revolution and structural change
E. Patterns of productivity and employment growth
F. The coevolution of structure and business cycle
1. Structure and external shocks
2. From import substitution to liquidity cycles
3. The 2000s: Commodities boom and external shocks
4. Convergence and divergence
G. Convergence and equality
1. Growth and distribution patterns
2. Geographical concentration of production and territorial heterogeneity
H. Concluding remarks
Chapter II
Structure, specialization and growth
A. Introduction
B. Structural change and convergence
1. The microeconomics of learning
2. Indicators of structural change
3. Analysis by region and by country
4. Natural resources and dynamic efficiency
5. Sustainable development and structural change
C. International specialization and long-term growth
1. Externally balanced growth
2. Elasticities and the production structure
D. Real exchange rate and patterns of specialization
Chapter III
Business cycle and investment
A. The business cycle in the region
B. External financial shocks
1. Financial opening
2. Domestic impact of external financial volatility
3. Composition of external financial flows
C. The trade dynamic and terms of trade
D. Investment patterns and composition
1. General trends
2. Investment in infrastructure
E. Foreign direct investment
F. Financing investment
1. Sources of funding: national savings and external savings
2. The financial system and funding the production sector
G. Investment profitability and production structure inertia
1. The microeconomic dimension
2. Microeconomic incentives and structure inertia
Chapter IV
Macroeconomy and production structure
A. The public finances
1. Tax revenues
2. Public spending and fiscal balances
3. Public debt
4. Fiscal space and economic performance
B. Monetary policy, exchange rates and inflation
1. Inflation, monetary policy and the exchange rate as a nominal anchor
in the 1990s
2. Towards greater exchange-rate flexibility
3. Monetary policy and exchange rates in the commodity price boom
4. Macroprudential policies
C. Concluding remarks
Chapter V
Structural heterogeneity, labour market segmentation and social inequality
A. Structural heterogeneity and social inequality: Complementary approaches
B. The labour market: Employment and income
1. Employment and the business cycle
2. Employment and the production structure
3. Labour income and the business cycle
4. Labour income and inequality
C. Recent evolution of household income inequality
Chapter VI
Policies for an integrated approach to development
A. Industrial policy
1. Evolution of industrial policy
2. Urgent return of sectoral policies
3. Key role of implementation and evaluation
4. The way forward
B. Macroeconomic policies
1. Fiscal policy
2. Monetary and exchange-rate policies
3. Macroprudential policy
4. Financial account regulation
5. Final comments
C. Social policies
1. Countercyclical employment and income policies
2. Employment policies and care networks
3. Labour market institutions
4. Redistributive policies
5. Social spending in the transition towards structural change with equality
6. Key role of the State in charting a new social policy course
towards structural change with equality
Chapter VII
Concluding remarks: The State and policy in the integrated approach to development
A. Policy and the State in an integrated approach to development
B. Central role of the State in policies geared towards structural change with equality
1. Industrial policy: Institutions to be built
2. The State and macroeconomic policy: Multiple goals and necessary agreements
3. Central social and labour policy role of the State with a view
to structural change with equality
4. Global governance, national States and regional integration
C. Integrated policies and synergies
D. A future with greater well-being
Bibliography
Annexes (1)
The Annexes are available online at
http://www.eclac.org/pses34/
Tables
Table I.1 Annual GDP growth rates by region (simple averages), 1971-2010
Table I.2 GDP growth rates by subregion, 1971-2010
Table I.3 Development patterns
Table I.4 Latin America: GDP, productivity and employment growth,
1961-2010
Table I.5 Latin America (selected countries) and Republic of Korea:
output and labour productivity growth, 1965-2010
Table I.6 Latin America (simple average of 16 countries): GDP, employment,
capital and total factor productivity growth rates, 1981-2010
Table I.7 South America, Central America and Mexico: goods and services
balance and GDP growth, 1960-2011
Table I.8 Latin America, Spain and Portugal: ratio between the region with
the highest per capita GDP and the lowest per capita GDP
Table II.1 Selected countries: average unemployment, 1980-2010
Table II.2 Selected regions and countries: structural change and technological
effort indicators
Table II.3 Selected countries: relative share of engineering activities in the aggregate
value of the manufacturing sector (EIS), relative productivity and EXPY
Table II.4 The Caribbean: total GDP growth and growth by economic sector,
1990-2010
Table II.5 Argentina, Brazil and Mexico: income elasticity of exports, by sector,
average 1962-2008
Table III.1 Duration and amplitude of real GDP expansions and contractions,
by levels, selected regions and countries, 1990-2010
Table III.2 Annual average GDP growth rate in cycle expansions, 1990-2010
Table III.3 Latin America: duration and amplitude of the variation in components
of aggregate demand in relation to GDP in expansions and contractions,
1990-2007
Table III.4 Latin America (selected countries): duration and amplitude of manufacturing
sector labour productivity cycle expansions and contractions in relation
to GDP, 1970-2008
Table III.5 Standardized index of financial openness, by regions, 2006-2009
Table III.6 Latin America and the Caribbean: country ranking by level of exposure
to the most variable components of external financing and degree
of financial deepening, 2007-2009
Table III.7 Composition of external financial flows and remittances, 1970-2010
Table III.8 Latin America and the Caribbean: net resource transfer,
annual average, 1982-2010
Table III.9 Latin America and the Caribbean: annual average public investment
by period
Table III.10 Latin America and the Caribbean: annual average private investment
by period
Table III.11 Latin America (6 countries): duration and amplitude of expansions
and contractions of the cycle of public investment
in infrastructure, 1980-2010
Table III.12 Latin America and the Caribbean: transnational company operations
Table III.13 Latin America: total savings, simple averages, 1980-2010
Table III.14 Latin America: national savings, simple averages, 1980-2010
Table III.15 Latin America: external savings, simple averages, 1980-2010
Table III.16 Market capitalization structure of local companies
by economic sector, 2010
Table III.17 Latin America: assets managed by pension funds
Table III.18 Share of development banks in total lending to the private sector, 2009
Table III.19 Latin America (selected countries): fossil fuel subsidies, 2008-2010
Table IV.1 Latin America: average tax structure, 1990-1992, 1999-2001 and 2007-2009
Table IV.2 Latin America and the Caribbean: domestic and external public debt,
1990, 2000 and 2010
Table IV.3 Latin America and the Caribbean: evolution of fiscal space, by country,
2000-2011
Table IV.4 Latin America and the Caribbean: annual inflation, 1991-2000
Table IV.5 Latin America and the Caribbean: annual inflation, 2001-2011
Table IV.6 The Caribbean: inflation by exchange-rate regime
Table IV.7 Latin America and the Caribbean: macroprudential policy instruments
Table V.1 Latin America and the Caribbean: changes in GDP and labour market
indicators, 1991-2010
Table V.2 Distribution of employment by economic sector, 1990-2010
Table V.3 Wage employment: percentage of wage jobs in total employment,
1990-2010
Table V.4 Real wages and economic growth, 1980-2010
Table V.5 Latin America: real variation in the minimum wage
Table V.6 Wage share of income, at factor cost, 1990-2009
Table V.7 Latin America: years of education, formal- and informal-sector workers,
1998-2010
Table VI.1 Latin America: main features of fiscal rules
Figures
Figure I.1 Evolution of per capita income, by world regions, 1750–2000
Figure I.2 Latin America and Asia: productivity growth, 1980-2010
Figure I.3 Latin America and developing countries in East Asia: pattern of structural
change and share of exports, 1985-2011
Figure I.4 Latin America: goods and services trade balance deficit as a percentage
of GDP and growth rates, 1960-2010
Figure I.5 Latin America and subregions: convergence and current account balances,
1951-2010
Figure I.6 Latin America: per capita income growth overall and for
the bottom seven deciles
Figure I.7 Latin America and member countries of the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development: geographical concentration of GDP,
around 2010
Figure I.8 Latin America: Gini coefficient of territorial disparity in per capita GDP,
2000-2010
Figure II.1 Latin America (12 countries): labour productivity and value added,
1980-2010
Figure II.2 Selected countries: comparison of labour productivity and value added,
1980-2010
Figure II.3 Latin America: per capita GDP and per capita energy consumption, 2008
Figure II.4 Latin America and the Caribbean (21 countries): business-as-usual scenario
for per capita CO2 emissions, per capita GDP, energy intensity of GDP
and CO2 intensity of energy consumption, 1980-2020
Figure II.5 South America: income elasticities of imports and exports,
moving averages, 1962-2007
Figure II.6 Central America: income elasticities of exports and imports,
moving averages, 1962-2007
Figure II.7 Latin America: relative labour productivity compared with the
United States, 1980-2010
Figure II.8 Latin America: number of patents per million people, 1980-2011
Figure II.9 Argentina, Brazil, Malaysia, Mexico and Republic of Korea:
elasticity ratios, 1962-2009
Figure III.1 Developing regions: annual average GDP growth rate in the acceleration
and deceleration phases of cycle expansions, 1990-2010
Figure III.2 Trend GDP for Latin America and the Caribbean and East Asia
and the Pacific, 1960-2010
Figure III.3 Latin America and the Caribbean: Chinn-Ito index of financial openness,
1970-2009
Figure III.4 Latin America and the Caribbean: private financial flows, 1980-2010
Figure III.5 External debt interest payments and profit and dividend remittances,
1980-2010
Figure III.6 Latin America and the Caribbean: terms of trade, 1990-2011
Figure III.7 World commodity prices, annual average, 1990-2011
Figure III.8 Latin America and the Caribbean: annual rate of increase of the volume
and price of goods exports, 2003-2011
Figure III.9 Latin America and the Caribbean: export structure by technology intensity,
1981-2010
Figure III.10 Latin America: share of intraregional exports in total exports, by groups
of countries
Figure III.11 Latin America: gross fixed capital formation, 1950-2010
Figure III.12 Latin America: gross fixed capital formation, by subregion
Figure III.13 Latin America: gross fixed capital formation, year-on-year
rates of variation, 1991-2011
Figure III.14 Latin America: contribution to the growth of gross fixed capital formation,
1991-2011
Figure III.15 Latin America and the Caribbean: public investment in infrastructure,
1980-2010
Figure III.16 Latin America and the Caribbean: foreign direct investment inflows,
total and by subregion, 1990-2011 . 126
Figure III.17 Latin America and the Caribbean: main foreign direct investment recipient
countries, 1990-2011
Figure III.18 Latin America and the Caribbean: distribution of foreign direct investment
flows by sectors, 2005-2011
Figure III.19 Latin America and the Caribbean: distribution of foreign direct investment
project amounts by technology intensity, 2003-2011
Figure III.20 Distribution of cross-border research and development
project amounts, 2008-2011
Figure III.21 Latin America: financing investment, 1980-2011
Figure III.22 Financial depth in selected regions and countries
Figure III.23 Latin America and the Caribbean and other selected regions:
domestic lending by the banking system, 1990 and 2010
Figure III.24 Latin America: average rate of real variation in credit
Figure III.25 Market capitalization in Latin America and the Caribbean, 2010
Figure III.26 Foreign bank loans to the non-financial private sector
Figure III.27 Latin America and the Caribbean (31 countries):
business investment funding, 2010
Figure III.28 Latin America and the Caribbean and high-income OECD countries:
investment by major companies, by source of funding, 2010
Figure III.29 Latin America and the Caribbean: development bank
loan portfolio, 2001-2009
Figure III.30 Latin America: return on assets by sector, weighted average,
2000-2005 and 2006-2010
Figure III.31 Latin America: return on assets in knowledge-intensive sectors
and mining, 2003-2010
Figure IV.1 Latin America and the Caribbean: fiscal resources, 1990-2011
Figure IV.2 Selected countries: tax burden relative to per capita GDP at purchasing
power parity (PPP), mid-2000s
Figure IV.3 International comparison of the level and structure of the tax burden,
various years between 2002 and 2010
Figure IV.4 Latin America and the Caribbean: tax burden (including social security
contributions), 1990-1992 and 2008-2010
Figure IV.5 Latin America and the Caribbean: total public spending, 1990-2010
Figure IV.6 Latin America and the Caribbean: total public spending, 1990-2010
Figure IV.7 Latin America and the Caribbean: annual increase in fiscal revenues,
primary spending and public debt interest, by groups of countries,
1991-2010
Figure IV.8 Latin America and the Caribbean (33 countries): primary and overall
balances, 1990-2010
Figure IV.9 Latin America and the Caribbean: public debt interest, current primary
spending and capital spending, 1990-2010
Figure IV.10 Latin America and the Caribbean: total non-financial public-sector debt,
1990-2011
Figure IV.11 Latin America (19 countries): total non-financial public-sector debt
by creditor’s country of residence, 1996-2011
Figure IV.12a Latin America and the Caribbean: fiscal policy quadrants
in expansionary periods
Figure IV.12b Latin America and the Caribbean: fiscal policy quadrants
in recessionary periods
Figure IV.13 Latin America and the Caribbean: primary balance and GDP growth,
1991-2010
Figure IV.14 Latin America and the Caribbean: ratio between public debt and
the average tax take
Figure IV.15 Latin America and the Caribbean: evolution of fiscal space by country
grouping, 2000-2011
Figure IV.16 Latin America and the Caribbean: inverse of fiscal space and the external
sector, by country, 1990s and 2000s
Figure IV.17 Latin America and the Caribbean (16 countries): degrees of currency market
intervention, 2003-2011
Figure IV.18 Latin America and the Caribbean: real multilateral exchange rate,
2000-2012
Figure IV.19 Latin America (6 countries): commodity prices, nominal exchange rates
and inflation, 2002-2011
Figure IV.20 Latin America: monetary policy rates, March 2007 to November 2010
Figure IV.21 Central America and the Dominican Republic: selected international
prices and inflation, 2008-2011
Figure IV.22 Central America (3 countries) and the Dominican Republic: monetary
policy benchmark rates, 2007-2012
Figure IV.23 The Caribbean: average inflation rates, 2002-2010
Figure V.1 Latin America and the Caribbean: main labour market indicators,
1991-2010
Figure V.2 Latin America: workers with social security coverage, by sector
(weighted average), around 1990, 2002, 2006 and 2009
Figure V.3 Latin America (18 countries): structural heterogeneity indicators,
around 2009
Figure V.4 Latin America (18 countries): GDP per worker, PPP around 2009
Figure V.5 Latin America (country groups according to heterogeneity) and Republic
of Korea: structural heterogeneity indicators, around 2009
Figure V.6 Latin America (country groups by heterogeneity): global labour force
participation rate, women aged 15 and over (simple averages),
around 2009
Figure V.7 Latin America (country groups by heterogeneity): global labour force
participation rate, women aged 25 to 54, by per capita income quintile
(simple averages), around 2009
Figure V.8 Latin America (country groups by heterogeneity): youth (aged 15 to 24)
and total unemployment rate (simple averages), around 2009
Figure V.9 Latin America and the Caribbean (country groups by heterogeneity): youth
(aged 15 to 24) and total unemployment rate, by per capita income quintile
(simple averages), around 2009
Figure V.10 Evolution of real wages, 1980-2010
Figure V.11 Ratio between the average labour income of informal-sector workers
and the wages of formal-sector workers, 1998 and 2010
Figure V.12 Latin America (18 countries): informality rate and monthly labour
income of the working population by age group and by education
level, around 2008
Figure V.13 Latin America (18 countries): Gini index, 1990-2002, 2002-2008
and 2008-2010
Figure V.14 Change in labour income and total income inequality, Gini index,
2002-2010
Boxes
Box II.1 Technological innovation for sustainable structural change
in Latin America
Box III.1 Multilateral development banks
Box IV.1 External debt in the Caribbean and its determinants
Box V.1 Measuring structural heterogeneity
Box V.2 Sector productivity and wages
Box V.3 Structural heterogeneity and inequality in Brazil
Box VI.1 Science, technology and innovation policies in Latin America
and the Caribbean
Box VI.2 Policies to support small and medium-sized enterprises: progress
in policymaking and failures of implementation
Box VI.3 Pro-competition measures and creation of environmentally
sustainable sectors
Box VI.4 Brazil’s experience with industrial policy in the 2000s
Box VI.5 Trinidad and Tobago’s heritage and stabilization fund
Diagram
Diagram V.1 From structural heterogeneity to inequality
Annexes The annexes are available online at
http://www.eclac.org/pses34/
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