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On Planning for Development: International migration outlook
From OECD 

International Migration Outlook

Annual Report - 2008 Edition

Temporary labour migration is back in the headlines again. It had fallen into discredit after the experience of the “guest-worker” era, when many of the guest workers who were present at the time of the first oil price shock remained in the host countries where they had found work. Recently, much of the debate on temporary labour migration has focused on so-called “circular migration”, which also incorporates the notion of repeated movements.
Why temporary migration is back in the limelight?
There are essentially three reasons for the resurgent interest in temporary migration.
The first relates to the fact that returns of highly qualified migrants are seen as a possible response to concerns about brain drain. For example, in India and Chinese Taipei, the return of highly skilled migrants has had beneficial effects on the development of the native software and high-technology sectors. As a result, some have argued that this model of return migration could be applied more broadly, enabling origin countries to reap some benefits from the temporary loss of talented expatriates.
The second reason is related to the discovery of the large remittances transferred by immigrants, both high- and lesser-skilled, back to their origin countries. These remittances greatly improve the welfare of persons left behind and tend to be more common for recent or short-term immigrants than for those long-established in host countries. Temporary migration tends to spread the benefits of remittances and of skill transfers among more persons.
The third concerns the fact that lesser skilled migration continues to suffer from a bad image in many host countries, with less favourable labour market outcomes for immigrants with low education and, often, for their children as well. As a consequence, there is a general reluctance to acknowledge that there are labour market needs for lowskilled migrants and a belief that any needs which do exist should be dealt with by means of temporary flows.
But how often do immigrants return to their countries of origin after a stay in a host country? Can migration policy encourage returns to host countries? Is temporary/circular labour migration a workable solution? This publication provides some answers to these questions.

Table of Contents
Editorial: Temporary Labour Migration: An Illusory Promise?
Introduction

Part I


RECENT TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION

A. Trends in Migration Flows and in the Immigrant Population
1. Introduction
2. Permanent-type immigration
3. Immigration by category of entry
4. Unauthorised migration
5. The continents, regions and countries of origin of immigrants
6. Temporary migration
7. The immigrant population – its size and characteristics
8. Migration of the highly educated
9. The evolution of the educational attainment of immigrants

Annex Chart I.A. Percentage of native-born and foreign-born with low and high attainment levels, by age, circa 2001
B. Immigrants and the Labour Market

1. Introduction
2. Labour market dynamics in OECD countries: the contribution of immigrant employment
3. The sectoral and occupational distribution of immigrants
4. Integration of immigrants into the labour market in OECD countries
5. A first glance at wage differentials between immigrants and native-born across the OECD

Annex Table I.B.1. Labour market situation of foreign- and native-born populations in selected OECD countries, 1995, 2000 and 2005-2006

Annex Table I.B.2. Labour market situation of foreigners and nationals in selected OECD countries, 1995, 2000 and 2005-2006
C. Migration Policy Development
1. Introduction
2. Structural and institutional reforms in the development and delivery of policy
3. International agreements between countries
4. The implications of EU legislation
5. Border control and illegal migration
6. Policies with respect to labour migration
7. Integration, residence and citizenship policies
8. Developments in humanitarian policies
9. International students
10. Conclusion
Notes
Bibliography

Part II

MANAGEMENT OF LOW-SKILLED LABOUR MIGRATION

Introduction
1. Low-skilled labour migration
2. Managed labour migration for the low-skilled?
3. Current unmanaged pathways
Conclusion
Notes
Bibliography

Annex II.A1.1. Temporary work permit programmes for low-skilled workers
Annex II.A1.2. Labour market tests in different OECD countries

Part III

RETURN MIGRATION: A NEW PERSPECTIVE

Introduction
Main findings
1. Measuring return migration 2. The determinants of return migration: from theory to practice
3. Immigration policies and their impact on return migration
4. Return migration and the development of the origin country
Conclusion

Notes

Bibliography

Annex III.A1. Inflows and outflows of foreigners in selected OECD countries
Annex III.A2. Inflows and outflows of migrants from Australia, Belgium, Sweden, Austria and Japan, various nationalities

Annex III.A3. Main voluntary assisted return programmes in selected OECD countries

Part IV

RECENT CHANGES IN MIGRATION MOVEMENTS AND POLICIES

(COUNTRY NOTES)
How to read the tables of Part IV
How to read the charts
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland . 270
Portugal 272
Romania 274
Slovak Republic
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States

STATISTICAL ANNEX

Introduction
Inflows and outflows of foreign population
Inflows of asylum seekers
Stocks of foreign and foreign-born population
Acquisition of nationality Inflows of foreign workers
Stocks of foreign and foreign-born labour
List of Sopemi Correspondents

List of OECD Secretariat Members involved in the preparation of this report

RECENT TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION

Charts

I.1. Permanent-type inflows, standardised statistics, 2006 I.2. Contribution of net migration and natural increase to population growth, 2006
I.3. Permanent-type immigration by category of inflow, 2006, standardised data
I.4. Change in inflows of migrants by country of origin, selected OECD countries, 1995-2005 and 2006
I.5. The foreign-born population in OECD countries, 2000-2006
I.6. Stock of foreign and foreign-born populations in selected OECD countries, 2006 55
I.7. Expected net change in the working-age population over the period 2005-2020, at 2001-2005 net migration levels, as a percentage of the population in 2005
I.8a. Difference between the percentage of foreign-born and of native-born persons with less than upper secondary education, 25-34 years old compared to 55-64 years old
I.8b. Difference between the percentage of foreign-born and of native-born persons with tertiary education, 25-34 years old compared to 55-64 years old
I.9. Employment growth of total and foreign-born population, 1996-2009
I.10. Immigrants’ share in net change in employment, 1996-2002, 1996-2006
I.11. Evolution in the employment rate of the foreign-born and gap with native-born, 2001-2006 .
I.12. Unemployment rate of immigrants relative to the native-born, 2006
I.13. Median wage of immigrants relative to the native-born, 2005-2006
I.14. Median wage and employment of immigrants relative to the native-born
I.15. Median wage by education level for native-born and foreign-born
I.16. The impact of differences in educational attainment on the wages of immigrants
I.17. Wage levels of immigrants compared to native-born, by duration of residence

Annex

I.A.1. Percentage of native-born and foreign-born with low and high attainment levels, by age, circa 2001

Tables

I.1. Inflows of foreign nationals, 2003-2006
I.2. Immigrant inflows to OECD countries by region or continent of origin, 2006
I.3. Top 20 countries of origin in 2006 for immigrant inflows into OECD countries and change since 2000
I.4. Inflows of temporary labour migrants, selected OECD countries, 2003-2006
I.5. Inflows of asylum seekers in OECD countries, 2000-2006, trends and levels
I.6. International and/or foreign students in OECD countries, 2000 and 2005
I.7. Impact of the country-of-origin mix and of immigrant qualifications on the percentage of immigrants with tertiary attainment, circa 2001
I.8. Share of the foreign-born in total population, labour force and employment, 15-64 years old
I.9. Components of change in the growth of employment among immigrants
I.10. Employment of foreign-born by sector, 2005-2006 average
I.11. Employment of foreign-born by occupation, 2005-2006 average
I.12. Change in the employment rate of the foreign-born population by gender, 2001-2006
I.13. Median wage of immigrants relative to the native-born, by country of origin and gender
I.14. Median wage of persons with tertiary education, immigrants compared to native-born, by origin of education and gender

Annexes

I.B.1. Labour market situation of foreign- and native-born populations in selected OECD countries, 1995, 2000 and 2005-2006
I.B.2. Labour market situation of foreigners and nationals in selected OECD countries, 1995, 2000 and 2005-2006

Boxes

I.1. The international comparability of immigration data
I.2. Labour force developments in countries undergoing demographic decline
I.3. Emigration at a glance in selected OECD countries
I.4. The employment impact of the introduction of free-circulation regimes
on labour migration from countries not covered by the regimes
I.5. Overview of migration to and from selected “potential” new OECD countries
I.6. Data sources and methodological issues in comparing cross-country wages of foreign- and native-born populations
1.7. Distribution of the wages of immigrants and native-born
I.8. Developments in EU immigration policy
I.9. A comparison of the Australian and UK points systems

Part II

MANAGEMENT OF LOW-SKILLED LABOUR MIGRATION

Charts

II.1. Percentage of foreign-born among low-educated labour force, by age, circa 2000
II.2. Percentage of foreign-born among low-educated labour force, 1995-2006
II.3. Low-educated foreign-born workers as a percentage of all workers
by occupation, 2006

Tables

II.1. The low-educated in the total and foreign-born labour force, by age, 2006
II.2. Labour force participation rate and unemployment rate of low-educated by place of birth, 2006
II.3. Inflows of temporary migrant workers, selected OECD countries, 2003-2006
II.4. Working holiday-makers in selected OECD countries, 1999-2006

Annexes

II.A1.1. Temporary work permit programmes for lower skilled workers

II.A1.2. Labour market tests in different OECD countries

Boxes

II.1. Spanish labour migration authorisation system
II.2. GATS Mode 4 and international service providers



Part III

RETURN MIGRATION: A NEW PERSPECTIVE

Charts

III.1. Various cases of return migration
III.2. Timing of migration for an individual and observational equivalence
III.3. Indirect estimation method of immigrants’ exits from the destination country
III.4. Evolution of the cohort of immigrants who entered the Netherlands in 1993, by duration of stay
III.5. Method for estimating returns using a census in the origin country
III.6. Retention rates of immigrants after 3 and 5 years of residence for selected
European countries, population aged 15 and older
III.7. Distribution of age at return for selected countries
III.8. Share of immigrants born in Portugal and Spain returning from France
to their origin countries, by average age at return
III.9. Proportion of return migrants by educational attainment among immigrants from Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico
III.10. Return rates by origin and destination countries, as a function of observed employment rates differentials, circa 2000
III.11. Return to education in origin and destination countries and migration status
III.12. Probability of remaining in the United States by immigration status and duration
III.13. Probability of remaining in the Netherlands by immigration status and duration
III.14. Percentage of people remaining in Norway in 2006 by reason for immigration and year of entry, non-Nordic persons
III.15. Probability of remaining in Canada by visa class and duration
III.16. Number of forced returns in selected OECD countries, yearly average for the periods indicated and last available year, 2001-2007
III.17. Educational attainment of return migrants compared to that of the total population
III.18. Occupations of return migrants compared to those of the total population

Annexes

III.A1.Inflows and outflows of foreigners in selected OECD countries
III.A2.Inflows and outflows of foreigners in selected OECD countries

Tables

III.1. Estimates of re-emigration rates in selected European countries and the United States after 5 years of residence
III.2. Proportion of return migrants among migrants from selected Latin American countries
III.3. International social security agreements, 2000

Annex
III.A3.1. Main voluntary assisted return programmes in selected OECD countries

Boxes

III.1. Specialised surveys
III.2. Estimating return migration from labour force surveys
III.3. Return for retirement
III.4. Return to education and return migration
III.5. Some findings on return rates by entry category of migrants
III.6. Forced returns
III.7. The European Return Fund
III.8. Mobility partnerships and circular migration between the European Union and third countries
Australia: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Austria: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Belgium: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Bulgaria: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Canada: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Czech Republic: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Denmark: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Finland: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
France: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Germany: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Greece: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Hungary: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Ireland: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Italy: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Japan: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Korea: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Lithuania: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Luxembourg: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Mexico: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Netherlands: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
New Zealand: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Norway: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Poland: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Portugal: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Romania: Flow data on foreigners+
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Slovak Republic: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Spain: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Sweden: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Switzerland: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
Turkey: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
United Kingdom: Flow data on foreigners
Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators
United States: Flow data on foreigners Macroeconomic, demographic and labour market indicators

STATISTICAL ANNEX
Inflows and outflows of foreign population
A.1.1. Inflows of foreign population into selected OECD countries
A.1.2. Outflows of foreign population from selected OECD countries
B.1.1. AUSTRALIA
B.1.1. AUSTRIA
B.1.1. BELGIUM
B.1.1. CANADA
B.1.1. CZECH REPUBLIC
B.1.1. DENMARK
B.1.1. FINLAND
B.1.1. FRANCE
B.1.1. GERMANY
B.1.1. GREECE
B.1.1. HUNGARY
B.1.1. IRELAND
B.1.1. ITALY
B.1.1. JAPAN
B.1.1. KOREA
B.1.1. LUXEMBOURG
B.1.1. NETHERLANDS
B.1.1. NEW ZEALAND
B.1.1. NORWAY
B.1.1. POLAND
B.1.1. PORTUGAL
B.1.1. SLOVAK REPUBLIC
B.1.1. SPAIN
B.1.1. SWEDEN
B.1.1. SWITZERLAND
B.1.1. TURKEY
B.1.1. UNITED KINGDOM
B.1.1. UNITED STATES
Metadata related to Tables A.1.1, A.1.2 and B.1.1. Migration flows in selected
OECD countries
Inflows of asylum seekers
A.1.3. Inflows of asylum seekers into OECD countries
B.1.3. AUSTRIA
B.1.3. BELGIUM
B.1.3. CANADA
B.1.3. FRANCE
B.1.3. GERMANY
B.1.3. NETHERLANDS
B.1.3. SWEDEN
B.1.3. SWITZERLAND
B.1.3. UNITED KINGDOM
B.1.3. UNITED STATES
Metadata related to Tables A.1.3 and B.1.3. Inflows of asylum seekers
Stocks of foreign and foreign-born population
A.1.4. Stocks of foreign-born population in selected OECD countries
B.1.4. AUSTRALIA
B.1.4. AUSTRIA
B.1.4. BELGIUM
B.1.4. CANADA
B.1.4. DENMARK
B.1.4. FINLAND
B.1.4. FRANCE
B.1.4. GREECE
B.1.4. HUNGARY
B.1.4. IRELAND
B.1.4. LUXEMBOURG
B.1.4. MEXICO
B.1.4. NETHERLANDS
B.1.4. NEW ZEALAND
B.1.4. NORWAY
B.1.4. POLAND
B.1.4. PORTUGAL
B.1.4. SLOVAK REPUBLIC
B.1.4. SPAIN
B.1.4. SWEDEN
B.1.4. TURKEY
B.1.4. UNITED KINGDOM
B.1.4. UNITED STATES
Metadata related to Tables A.1.4 and B.1.4. Foreign-born population
A.1.5. Stocks of foreign population in selected OECD countries
B.1.5. AUSTRIA
B.1.5. BELGIUM
B.1.5. CZECH REPUBLIC
B.1.5. DENMARK
B.1.5. FINLAND
B.1.5. FRANCE
B.1.5. GERMANY
B.1.5. GREECE
B.1.5. HUNGARY
B.1.5. IRELAND
B.1.5. ITALY
B.1.5. JAPAN
B.1.5. KOREA
B.1.5. LUXEMBOURG
B.1.5. NETHERLANDS
B.1.5. NORWAY
B.1.5. POLAND
B.1.5. PORTUGAL
B.1.5. SLOVAK REPUBLIC
B.1.5. SPAIN
B.1.5. SWEDEN
B.1.5. SWITZERLAND
B.1.5. UNITED KINGDOM
Metadata related to Tables A.1.5 and B.1.5. Foreign population .
Acquisition of nationality
A.1.6. Acquisition of nationality in selected OECD countries
B.1.6. AUSTRALIA
B.1.6. AUSTRIA
B.1.6. BELGIUM
B.1.6. CZECH REPUBLIC
B.1.6. DENMARK
B.1.6. FINLAND
B.1.6. FRANCE
B.1.6.
B.1.6. ITALY
B.1.6. JAPAN
B.1.6. KOREA
B.1.6. LUXEMBOURG
B.1.6. NETHERLANDS
B.1.6. NEW ZEALAND
B.1.6. NORWAY
B.1.6. POLAND
B.1.6. PORTUGAL
B.1.6. SLOVAK REPUBLIC
B.1.6. SPAIN
B.1.6. SWEDEN
B.1.6. SWITZERLAND
B.1.6. UNITED STATES
Metadata related to Tables A.1.6 and B.1.6. Acquisition of nationality
Inflows of foreign workers
A.2.1. Inflows of foreign workers into selected OECD countries
Metadata related to Table A.2.1. Inflows of foreign workers
Stocks of foreign and foreign-born labour.
A.2.2. Stocks of foreign-born labour force in selected OECD countries.
B.2.1. AUSTRALIA
B.2.1. AUSTRIA
B.2.1. CANADA
B.2.1. DENMARK
B.2.1. FINLAND
B.2.1. GREECE
B.2.1. MEXICO
B.2.1. NEW ZEALAND
B.2.1. SWEDEN
B.2.1. UNITED KINGDOM
B.2.1. UNITED STATES
Metadata related to Tables A.2.2 and B.2.1. Foreign-born labour force
A.2.3. Stocks of foreign labour force in selected OECD countries
B.2.2. AUSTRIA
B.2.2. BELGIUM
B.2.2. CZECH REPUBLIC
B.2.2. DENMARK
B.2.2. FINLAND
B.2.2. FRANCE
B.2.2. GERMANY
B.2.2. GREECE
B.2.2. HUNGARY
B.2.2. IRELAND
B.2.2. ITALY
B.2.2. JAPAN
B.2.2. KOREA
B.2.2. LUXEMBOURG
B.2.2. NETHERLANDS
B.2.2. NORWAY
B.2.2. PORTUGAL
B.2.2. SLOVAK REPUBLIC
B.2.2. SPAIN
B.2.2. SWEDEN
B.2.2. SWITZERLAND
B.2.2. UNITED KINGDOM
Metadata related to Tables A.2.3 and B.2.2. Foreign labour force


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